Technical paper/Risk
Rating migrations of US financial institutions: are different outcomes equivalent?
This study employs a competing risks approach to examine the rating migrations of US financial institutions (FIs) during the period 1984–2006.
Range-based volatility forecasting: an extended conditional autoregressive range model
This paper proposes an extended conditional autoregressive range (EXCARR) model to describe the range-based volatility dynamics of financial assets.
Operational risk measurement: a loss distribution approach with segmented dependence
This paper proposes an approach, called the loss distribution approach with segmented dependence (LDA-SD), which can model the different dependencies of HFLI and LFHI losses in the framework of LDA.
Second-order risk of alternative risk parity strategies
In this paper, the authors provide theoretical and empirical evidence of the contribution of second-order risk to realized volatility for alternative risk parity strategies.
Bank risk, bank bailouts and sovereign capacity during a financial crisis: a cross-country analysis
This paper analyzes the competitive effects of government bailout expectations on bank risk using a sample of banks in OECD countries from 2005 to 2015.
Measuring latent risk preferences: minimizing measurement biases
In this paper, the author uses a unique data set, containing the revealed risk preferences of 9235 subjects, elicited with four different methods, to estimate latent risk preferences.
Balance-sheet interest rate risk: a weighted Lp approach
In this paper, the authors introduce a new interest rate risk measure that is a product of two factors: one related to the distance between assets and liabilities in the Lp-space of financial instruments, and the other linked to the performance of the…
A three-state early warning system for the European Union
In this paper, the authors develop an early warning system for forecasting a financial crisis of the magnitude of the 2007–8 crisis for the European Union (the EU14).
A general framework for constructing bank risk data sets
This paper proposes a general framework for constructing bank risk data sets, which provides an integrated process from data sources to comprehensive risk data sets.
Covering the world: global evidence on covered calls
Typical covered call strategies may be decomposed, using a risk and performance attribution methodology, into three components: equity exposure, short volatility exposure and equity timing. This paper applies that attribution methodology to covered calls…
Managing adverse temperature conditions through hybrid financial instruments
This paper proposes temperature-based risk management using hybrid financial instruments built on weather derivatives.
Risk monitoring through better knowledge-based risk processes
The aim of this paper is to propose a model that describes the integration of knowledge-based risks (via the processes of knowledge-based risk identification, analysis, evaluation and education) and knowledge-based risk repositories to support risk…
New backtests for unconditional coverage of expected shortfall
In this paper, the authors present a new backtest for the unconditional coverage property of expected shortfall.
Multifactor granularity adjustments for market and counterparty risks
In this paper, the authors propose several flexible families of models to manage the market and/or the counterparty risk of portfolios of financial assets.
Chaotic behavior in financial market volatility
In this paper, the authors present a robust method for the detection of chaos based on the Lyapunov exponent, which is consistent even for noisy and finite scalar time series.
BV–VPIN: Measuring the impact of order flow toxicity and liquidity on international equity markets
The authors analyze the impact of different values of the VBS and sample size applied as inputs in a BV–VPIN model based on the US market in order to ascertain the optimal criteria for application across all other countries in our data set.
Estimation window strategies for value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting
This paper analyzes the impact of different estimation window strategies, including structural breaks and forecast combinations, on forecasting common risk measures such as VaR and ES.
Risk averse fractional trading using the current drawdown
In this paper, the fractional trading ansatz of money management, also called growth optimal trading, is reconsidered. Special attention is paid to the chance and risk parts of the goal function for the related optimization problem.
Operational risk measurement beyond the loss distribution approach: an exposure-based methodology
In this paper, the authors present an alternative quantification technique, so-called exposure-based operational risk (EBOR) models, which aim to replace historical severity curves by measures of current exposures and use event frequencies based on…
The predictability implied by consumption-based asset-pricing models: a review of the theory and empirical evidence
This paper examines whether two well-known models, Campbell and Cochrane’s habit model and Bansal and Yaron’s long-run risks model, can produce significant return predictability.
Impact of D-vine structure on risk estimation
In this paper, a sensitivity analysis using pair–copula decomposition of multivariate dependency models is performed on estimates of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).
Smoothing algorithms by constrained maximum likelihood: methodologies and implementations for Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress testing and International Financial Reporting Standard 9 expected credit loss estimation
In this paper, the author proposes smoothing algorithms that are based on constrained maximum likelihood for rating-level PD and for rating migration probability.
Monitoring transmission of systemic risk: application of partial least squares structural equation modeling in financial stress testing
This paper illustrates how the transmission of systemic risk from shadow banking to the regulated banking sector can be modeled using partial least squares structural equation modeling in an effort to help regulators better monitor and manage contagion.