Technical paper/Probability of default (PD)

A bottom-up model with top-down dynamics

Yadong Li proposes a flexible, tractable and arbitrage-free bottom-up dynamic correlation modelling framework with a consistent stochastic recovery specification for multi-name credit derivatives. In this framework, the model’s spread dynamics can be…

Estimating credit contagion in a standard factor model

State-of-the-art credit risk portfolio models and the new Basel capital Accord consider only symmetric dependencies between borrowers in a portfolio, such as correlations. Recently, asymmetric dependencies have been introduced by Davis & Lo (2001), among…

Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons

Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…

Quantifying operational risk

This is the fifth of Charles Smithson's latest series of Class Notes, which will run in alternate issues of Risk through to the end of 2004. Class Notes is an educational series, designed to pull together the threads of recent developments and thinking…