Expected shortfall
Most EU banks use historical simulation approach to VAR
Few lenders favour Monte Carlo or parametric methodologies
Why investors are stuck with flawed VAR models
Buy-side risk survey: VAR wasn’t much use in March, but it is ingrained in the industry
EBA relaxes modellability hurdles for market risk capital
Flexibility granted for assessing NMRFs on options, but constraints remain on committed quotes
FRTB comes too late for Covid crisis
Expected shortfall would stop Basel 2.5 duplicate capital charges, but backtesting still a problem
A sensitivity analysis of the alpha factor
In this paper, we investigate the alpha factor’s sensitivity to key model parameters under stylized portfolio assumptions in order to better understand its complex characteristics. Our analysis is based on the numerical simulation of alpha sensitivities…
VAR models at odds on forex, commodities, credit risks – EBA
Interquartile distribution of VAR outputs highest for small banks, watchdog finds
Extremal risk management: ES value verification
In this paper, we refer to the axiomatic theory of risk and investigate the problem of formal verification of the expected shortfall (ES) model based on a sample ES. Recognizing the infeasibility of parametric methods, they explore the bootstrap…
Quants bring ‘triptych’ of variables to risk measurement
Risk and portfolio managers at La Francaise and LFIS are squeezing more information out of stress tests
Measuring expected shortfall under semi-parametric expected shortfall approaches: a case study of selected Southern European/Mediterranean countries
In this paper, the authors investigate the applicability of semi-parametric approaches for estimating expected shortfall.
Backtesting expected shortfall: a simple recipe?
In this paper, the authors introduce a new ES backtesting framework based on the duality between coherent risk measures and scale-invariant performance measures.
Static and dynamic risk capital allocations with the Euler rule
This paper studies the volatility of the Euler rule for capital allocation in static and dynamic empirical applications with a simulated history.
EU banks grapple with NMRF proposals for volatility models
EBA options for lighter capital treatment of parametric curves could prove impractical
Forecasting value-at-risk
Alvin Stroyny and Tim Wilding build a dynamic risk framework for multi-asset global portfolios
Backtesting expected shortfall: mission accomplished?
A rigorous backtest for ES cannot exist, but a good approximation might do the job
Podcast: Acerbi on backtesting ES and FRTB’s patchwork rules
Banque Pictet quant explains a new backtesting method for expected shortfall
The minimally biased backtest for ES
Acerbi and Szekely present a backtest for expected shortfall
Nonparametric versus parametric expected shortfall
In this paper, the authors use influence functions as a basic tool to study unconditional nonparametric and parametric expected shortfall (ES) estimators with regard to returns data influence, standard errors and coherence.
Risk premia strategies – Lessons learned for the future
After a difficult 2018, investors are increasingly wary of risk premia, concerned that factors leading to underperformance might be a recurring problem. Imene Moussa, executive director at UBS, clarifies this issue
A helping hand – Addressing industry concerns
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s final revisions to the FRTB guidelines aim to address industry concerns around complexity and capital implications. A forum of industry leaders discusses whether the changes have been effective and how banks…
Turning the IMA into a competitive advantage
Following the clarification of the FRTB rules in January 2019, financial institutions are now working towards a 2022 implementation deadline, finalising how their trading books will operate under this demanding regulation. Eoin Ó Ceallacháin, head of…
From log-optimal portfolio theory to risk measures: logarithmic expected shortfall
In this paper, the authors propose a modification of expected shortfall that does not treat all losses equally. We do this in order to represent the worries surrounding big drops that are typical of multiperiod investors.
The utility of Basel III rules on excessive violations of internal risk models
In this paper, the author looks at the efficacy of risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indexes, and calculates both the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES) on each of these data sets as well as on…
Banks hope final FRTB rules will ease NMRF burden
Internal models approach buoyed by more liberal rules on price observations and risk factor aggregation
Podcast: Kenyon and Berrahoui on the pitfalls of PFE
Quants propose replacement to existing credit risk measure