Journal of Energy Markets

Risk.net

A fractional Brownian–Hawkes model for the Italian electricity spot market: estimation and forecasting

Luca Giordano and Daniela Morale

We propose a new model for the description and forecast of gross prices of electricity in the liberalized Italian energy market via an additive two-factor model. We show the characteristics of spot prices and the presence of self-correlations in the price increments. Further, we show the presence of several jumps in the Italian electricity market, many of which appear clustered over short time periods. The two-factor model we propose is driven by both Hawkes and fractional Brownian processes. We examine the system in detail from a modeling point of view. We then perform a calibration procedure, discussing the seasonality, spikes and an estimate of the Hurst coefficient. After calibrating and validating the model, we consider its forecasting performance via a class of adequate evaluation metrics.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Risk.net? View our subscription options