Can machine learning help predict recessions? Not really
Artificial intelligence models stumble on noisy data and lack of interpretability
What are the odds of a recession hitting the United States in 2024?
Goldman Sachs places its bet at 15%. The New York Federal Reserve suggests a gloomier likelihood of 69% using a model based on the yield curve, one of the best known indicators of recessions. A group of economists project a 50% chance of a downturn, in a survey by Wolters Kluwer. Polls of CEOs and consumers show 84% and 69%, respectively, braced for recessionary winds in the next 12–18 months.
Quants trying to make sense of these
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