Actuaries stress uncertainty in predicting mortality as death rates plummet

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Mortality rates in the UK have nose-dived by up to 33%, according to the latest report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), a research body run by the UK Actuarial Profession, surveying mortality over the 1999-2002 period. The report, which showcases new stochastic projection techniques for actuarial modelling, comes at a time when life and pensions companies across Europe are increasing their longevity risk reserves.

The number of men aged 65 expected to die within one year has

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