Has there been excessive speculation in the US oil futures markets?

What can we (carefully) conclude from new CFTC data?

hilary-till-edhec

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Abstract/Summary
Even though there were numerous plausible explanations for the oil-price rally that culminated in July 2008, there remains much uncertainty on how much to ascribe this rally to speculation, given the lack of transparency in the global oil markets. Was there excessive speculation in the oil markets?

Many facets of the world oil markets are, indeed, too opaque, including future productive capacity estimates from important suppliers, inventory statistics from import

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